US Election 2020 Forecast – Who Can Win?
When presidents run for reelection, approval ratings matter a lot. Same is the case with Donald Trump, there are many factors to count when we are talking about the current president and his reelection campaign. Many say that he is the most unpopular president to stand for a reelection, which makes Trump vs. Biden polls interesting.
Trump’s Contrasting Nature
Trump has a strong approval in his party. But the number of people opposing him are more than the people who support him. He is probably the only president in history whose rivals say that they will surely vote against him to see him out of the white house.
But the same is the case with Trump’s supporters as well. The people who believe in Trump are also motivated to vote for him and see him in office for the second time around. Despite his many benefits, Trump seems incapable or unwilling to showcase those benefits. Trump remains impulsive, and thinks that this works great for him.
There are also many electoral benefits that Trump has. In the previous election, Trump received 3 million less votes as compared to Hillary Clinton. Despite getting only 46% of the votes, Trump won the electoral college votes and was able to occupy the white house for 4 years.
The election and electoral structure in America is a bit different. Winner takes all despite getting fewer votes as compared to his rival. Trump has enough voters spread across the United States to win him the electoral college votes, no matter if he wins the majority vote or not. He also has a strong footing in battleground states. Even if he loses one or two, he can still hold on to the rest of them (that he won in 2016) and win the 2020 presidential election.
It is predicted that Trump might lose in getting the popular vote by over 5 million margin. But he can still win the Electoral College votes if he gets a nice spread of votes across the battleground states.
Trump is an incumbent president, and only two presidents have lost their reelection in the last 40 years. Both of them had the United States going through some crisis and recession. Trump can also start fundraising sooner, and dominates the news coverage like no other president in the history of the United States.
What Are The Democrats Up To?
Democrats know very well that relying just on the declining popularity of Donald Trump would not be enough to beat him in the 2020 election. That is why the nominee choice of the Democrats matters a lot. Election are not only the reassessment of an incumbent president, but they actually are a face to face competition between two candidates.
Trump and all of his supporters who want to see him reelected will put a huge effort and invest their time and money to defame the Democratic nominee. Trump also likes doing this to his opponents. That is why the Ukraine call scandal and request to China to investigate Joe Biden had become popular recently.
Despite the high enthusiasm of Democrats to defeat Trump, they currently do not have a strong enough candidate to give him a tough time in election. This is clearly showing in the primaries. Trump has perfect allegations and weaknesses for every candidate that he can use to demonize them prior to the election.
More Funds For Democrats
Trump might have lots of money to spend, but the Democratic candidates raised twice as much funds as Trump did in the last quarter. That should be the enthusiasm and life of people for Democrats, if only they were united under one single candidate and were not divided.
The Economy Matters A Lot
The economic condition of the country when a president is about to leave his office is the thing that he is questioned about the most. In Trump’s era, we can say that various sectors of the US economy have shown positive growth, and are better now than they were when Trump took his office.
Despite a stronger economy, Trump’s approval rating has been shown to decrease in recent times. However, nothing is final in politics, and we cannot say anything unless we see Trump vs. Biden Michigan polls and others.